The Arrest of "El Raton" 2.0

Photo Courtesy of Wikipedia

If you have not heard, on January 5th, 2023 in the early morning hours, the Mexican Government initiated a massive law enforcement and military operation to arrest Ovidio Guzman-Lopez, also known as (aka) "El Raton," one of the sons of former Sinaloa Drug Cartel Kingpin Joaquin Guzman-Loera, aka "El Chapo." If you are still confused on who these individuals are, I urge you to do some light research on the matter. However, El Chapo was at one time a house hold name so I imagine most of you who are reading this article weekly are aware.

What some of you may not know is that like his father, Ovidio Guzman has now been apprehended two times by Mexican authorities. It should be noted though that unlike his father, who had escaped prison in Mexico in true gangster, crime lord, movie script fashion, Ovidio was arrested and then released on orders from the Mexican government, on alleged orders from Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador or AMLO as he is so "affectionately" called in the media. His arrest and subsequent abrupt release in 2019 turned out to be a massive embarrassment to not just those who arrested him, but to Mexican and United States law enforcement, the military and to AMLO and his administration as well.

2019

If you were following that story in 2019 as closely as I was, you would have been thinking to yourself in what world would an entire government cave in and release a gangster after he had been captured lawfully and in what appeared to be a large operation. Well, it turns out that in 2019 the Government of Mexico (GOM) massively underestimated how powerful and even popular Ovidio Guzman was.

There are many theories floating around, even today, about the real reason why El Raton was released back then, but the main theory, which appears to be true, at least to me, is that hit-men or "sicarios" associated with the Sinaloa Cartel and who were loyal to El Raton were able to lay siege to many towns in Sinaloa and while doing so hold hostage a military barracks that was housing family members of Mexican military personnel. Their demands once in control of the barrack were simple. Either release Ovidio, or watch as the sicarios murdered everyone they had held hostage in those barracks.

The threat was quite real, and apparently it caught the GOM quite off guard. Not knowing how and what to do in order to guarantee those innocent people's safety AMLO ordered Ovidio released, and as a result the hostages were also released. As I stated earlier, this was a huge embarrassment, which showed how poorly planned the mission was and how vulnerable and unprepared the Mexican authorities were. The GOM were obviously the losers here, and social media played a huge part in showing their failure for the whole world to see. However, despite the embarrassing result, and given the resources and situation the GOM was in, perhaps the right call was made in order to save lives. After all, the Sinaloa Cartel was promising mass civilian death if Ovidio was not released.

Utter Madness

Still though, Twitter was ablaze with images and videos of Sinaloa Cartel members, sicarios, and their allies taking to the streets and fighting with Mexican authorities. Although most people  were not aware while they were viewing the violent battles and skirmishes between the Sinaloa Cartel and Mexican authorities, but it was really the first time since the days of Pablo Escobar that the world got to see just how powerful a Trans-National Criminal Organization (TCO) really was. Social media highlighted cartel members who had what looked like obvious military and police training setting up checkpoints throughout the Sinaloa and Sonora regions; fighting and holding their own with their massive supply of weaponry and violent tactics; and literally setting an entire region of Mexico on fire as they prepared for and went to war with the GOM. I remember watching videos of cartel members laying siege and pinning down Mexican military members with huge .50 caliber rifles, setting gas stations ablaze, holding bridges and initiating lockdowns so as to prevent any coming and going into that part of Mexico.

The situation on the ground was utter madness. It was truly a spectacle to behold, and at the time, I remember being saddened and frustrated by hearing that Ovidio was released and the reasoning behind it. It should not have surprised me that the cartel would go to those extremes, but it did. Something else that surprised me at the time was that in the aftermath, the GOM and even the U.S. Government (USG) was looking for someone to blame for the failure to apprehend and keep El Raton. To me it was obvious, the GOM should have owned the failure(s).

Having been apart of the world of confidential informants, sources of information, criminal intelligence and violent crime, I know that there was a ton of intelligence collection, information gathering, analysis, corroboration, vetting and planning that went into verifying when and where Ovidio was. However, I believe that the GOM and whatever "other foreign government agency" counterparts they were getting aid from failed to consider how powerful and well equipped and resourced the Sinaloa Cartel really was. That cartel was the de facto government in that region and a better area study would have shown this.

Politics at Play

Of course, to us readers and viewers not in the know, it should be assumed that there is much that the media and as a result we the public do not know about the details, planning and operation into his capture and even why Ovidio was considered for arrest. This could be speculated on all day, but for now it will stay nothing but speculation. To me though, it was peculiar as to why they were targeting him. I mean, yes El Raton does meet the definition of not just a drug Kingpin but a TCO Kingpin and his very existence shows the GOM and USG in a bad light, simply due to his relation to his father and how he basically took up portions of the family business immediately following his father's extradition to the United States.

Perhaps, the Guzman family is the latest name on the chopping block and due to how famous El Chapo had gotten, any arrest of his sons and a hit to their criminal enterprise would no doubt score political points for AMLO, who has historically been soft on the cartels. There were even reports that AMLO was blaming the DEA for the debacle of El Raton's arrest, despite reports indicating that it was the US DHS in large aiding the GOM in this particular arrest operation. This is still evident as there are reports that still indicate that AMLO has grown a disdain for the DEA in Mexico, and has been favoring other options of US aid in the form of the DHS; regardless, for a nation reeling from the seemingly never ending violence he obviously needed to do something.

Even with the capture and possible future extradition of El Raton to the United States, it will still not do much to dismantle the Sinaloa Cartel, which appears to be stronger than ever under the tutelage of Kingpin Ismael Zambada Garcia aka "El Mayo." Do not get me wrong, I am applauding the GOM now just as I did, at first, in 2019 when they went after him, and any large disruption of a cartel that size is warranted. AMLO needed to finish the job to help his credibility and to help rebuild any burnt bridges that happened after the 2019 fiasco, and with United States President Joe Biden planning a future visit to Mexico to meet with AMLO in early 2023, this will help show his voters as well as world leaders that he is trying to take a stand against the cartels.

No Holds Barred

Personally, I am glad to see El Raton arrested and I hope he eventually is extradited to the US quick to face jail time here just as his father eventually did. These cartel leaders are responsible for untold violence, death and suffering in the areas where their drug trafficking organizations reign.

After watching the skirmishes in the streets of Culiacan, and Sinaloa in general in 2019 I came to believe that perhaps a more surgical, clandestine "Tier 1" military approach was what would be needed to effectively combat the higher echelon leadership of not just the Sinaloa Cartel, but that of the CJNG and Gulf Cartel as well. Even though that did not exactly take place during the second arrest of El Raton in 2023, I was pleased to see that the GOM learned from whatever mistakes were had in 2019 and pulled out all the stops for this operation.

Just from viewing various social media and news feeds I have learned that the GOM deployed approximately and possibly greater than 900 military members from the SEDENA (Mexican Army) SEMAR (Mexican Marines), both with supposed special forces members on the ground responsible for his apprehension, National Guard members, local and regional police, helicopter gunships equipped with mini-guns laying down and blanketing areas with massive firepower and cover, armored vehicles, surveillance and support aircraft, and numerous large jet aircraft which were fueled and ready to go at the Culiacan International Airport for El Raton's transport to a Mexican "supermax" prison facility; all of this for one gangster which seems, and is excessive. But, this time around the military was not messing around and came prepared to fight so they would not lose again, on the ground or in the media.

Still, and not surprisingly violence has ensued and is still unraveling in the region no doubt causing the deaths of many, which is heartbreaking to read and learn about. Although not exactly a "Tier 1" approach, it appears to have done the trick and will hopefully start sending a message. Like or dislike AMLO and his administration, something does need to be done, the gang and cartel rule in Mexico has been creating a two government “narco-state” system there which clearly does not appear to be sustainable, so perhaps this is a start. I doubt it, but perhaps. Nevertheless, the situation is still ongoing and no doubt very fluid. I am sure more stories will come to light in the coming days and weeks. I am interested and excited to see how this all plays out. Thank you for reading.